Key Insights on NZ’s Employment Market May 2025 Edition

Times remain as uncertain as ever regarding New Zealand’s economic outlook. As we move closer to the end of Quarter 2, businesses are slowly finding their footing. Government measures such as easing borrowing costs and continued efforts to combat inflation have injected a fresh wave of optimism for the remainder of 2025.

There are promising signs, particularly in agriculture and regional tourism, where rural areas are showing resilience and growth. These sectors are proving to be the backbone of the economy at present. Total exports were valued at $6.2 billion in January 2025, an increase of $1.4 billion compared to January 2024. Imports also rose to $6.7 billion, up $787 million over the same period — a signal that demand remains active, despite broader uncertainty. However, the picture isn’t consistent across the board. While borrowing conditions are improving, the full effects of lower interest rates have yet to filter through to the broader market.

In urban areas, challenges remain. The cost-of-living pressures, concerns around job security, and the ongoing departure of talent overseas continue to weigh heavily on sentiment. Urban businesses appear to be holding their ground, with few falling backward, but with limited forward momentum as well.

This climate of uncertainty has led many businesses to withhold capital spending, and rightly so. In times like these, taking on additional risk is a gamble few are willing to make. As businesses weigh their next moves, another major factor shaping the future of our workforce is immigration, and its growing impact is something we can’t afford to overlook.

New Zealand’s migration landscape has undergone major shifts, and 2025 is shaping up as a crucial year. In 2023, we saw a record net migration gain of 118,800 people, with 232,900 arrivals an influx that helped fill immediate gaps but also triggered major policy changes. New immigration settings, such as higher English language standards and increased work visa wage thresholds, aim to cool the pace through the second half of 2025.

Meanwhile, a record 72,900 Kiwis left New Zealand, mostly young professionals aged 20–39, drawn overseas by higher wages and better opportunities. For local businesses, immigration is now not just helpful, it’s essential to stabilise workforces and replace outgoing talent. As conditions evolve, companies must adjust to a new environment where attracting and retaining migrant talent is a key part of staying operational.

Immigration isn’t just reshaping overall workforce numbers; it is redefining critical industries under increasing pressure. In transport and logistics alone, New Zealand faces a shortage of 18,000 skilled workers by 2028, particularly across freight, distribution, and warehousing. Meanwhile, the engineering and construction sectors must grow their workforces by over 50% by 2026 to meet the demands of major infrastructure projects.

Sectors tied to our candidate base are showing strong, sustained growth. Construction and utilities are expanding by 2.2% annually, adding around 6,100 jobs per year, while manufacturing is growing by 2.0% annually, adding around 3,000 new roles each year. Labourers, truck drivers, machine operators, storespersons, and warehouse staff will all remain in high demand. Retail trade and accommodation, particularly food services, are also driving additional warehousing and delivery needs as consumer goods movement increases.

Truck drivers and delivery drivers are among the fastest-growing lower-skilled occupations, projected to make up around 40% of growth in this category. Machine operators and labourers are also seeing steady demand, fueled by growth in construction, manufacturing, and online shopping.

In a tightening labour market, businesses that act early by streamlining onboarding, offering genuine pathways to permanent roles, and positioning themselves as an employer of choice for migrant workers will be best placed to secure the essential skills they need to thrive through 2025 and beyond.