Key Insights on NZ’s Employment Market November 2025 Edition

A lot has changed in the economic climate since the long drag of winter in 2025. As the weather brightens, many are asking whether the same uplift is coming for New Zealand. Encouragingly, there are signs that support this idea. Morningstar DBRS, a major global financial research firm, has completed an independent assessment of New Zealand and notes the country is now trending in a stable direction. This outlook is driven by factors such as tighter monetary policy, easing interest rates, and improved fiscal settings. Their analysis suggests the potential for a positive economic turn in 2026, provided global conditions remain steady. Although New Zealand has moved upward under the current government, performance has remained moderate when compared with other countries.

This slow return of confidence is now showing in sectors like manufacturing, which has recorded promising momentum in recent months. The BNZ Business New Zealand Performance of Manufacturing Index (PMI) reported that the sector expanded for the fourth consecutive month, rising to 51.4 in October, an increase of 1.3 points from September. Any score above 50 signals expansion, and this growth has been driven by stronger demand, shifting seasonal orders, and renewed economic confidence.

Sentiment among manufacturers has also improved. Negative comments about future conditions fell to 54.1 percent in October, down from 60.2 percent in September and 58.1 percent in August. However, this lift in activity has not yet translated into job creation. Staff reductions remain a challenge as businesses continue to manage costs carefully after an extended period of economic pressure. If economic momentum continues, job growth should eventually follow, but employers remain cautious for now.

It is not all bad news for the labour market. With new seasonal demand and a slight lift in economic confidence, more roles are beginning to surface. Over the last quarter, job listings have risen 13 percent nationwide, and even at Indus we have noticed November feeling more active as positions start appearing again.

Much of this momentum is coming from the South Island, which is now leading the country in job market recovery. According to Trade Me Jobs, Southland saw an exceptional 25.1 percent rise in listings, followed by Otago at 7.1 percent and Canterbury at 6.1 percent. This strength contrasts sharply with the North Island’s major centres, where listings fell 5.8 percent in Auckland and 6.8 percent in Wellington.

There are several reasons the South Island is generating more jobs. Regional economies like Southland and Canterbury are benefiting from stronger hospitality activity, seasonal tourism, construction pipelines, and ongoing infrastructure work. These industries are more active in the south heading into summer, while businesses in Auckland and Wellington remain cautious due to slower demand and higher operating costs. Lower competition, lower overheads, and a quicker rebound in regional confidence have also helped the South Island pull ahead.

Employers are also continuing to pay a premium to secure skilled workers, with several industries hitting record-high average salaries. Banking and Finance roles now average 103,591 dollars, Property averages 103,813 dollars, Healthcare sits at 78,245 dollars, Trades and Services at 73,300 dollars, and Manufacturing and Operations at 66,958 dollars. This trend has only intensified with many experienced professionals relocating to Australia in recent years, leaving local businesses competing harder for the talent that remains.

This shift sets the stage for a growing discussion about Australia, where stronger conditions and higher pay continue to draw New Zealand workers.

As employers compete harder for top-tier talent, it is clear the pressure is being driven by a growing outflow of skilled New Zealanders. Australia is recruiting aggressively and Kiwis are responding. Even our police force is being targeted, with 60 of the 87 officers hired by the Northern Territory since 2023 coming from New Zealand. This is not about abandoning home. As superintendent Serge Bouma puts it, many are simply seeking better opportunities, stronger career progression and financial security.

The scale of movement reflects this. Nearly 73,000 New Zealanders left for Australia in the past year while only 26,000 returned, and 18 to 30 year olds made up more than a third of those departures. Australian employers are offering pay rates up to 50 dollars an hour, relocation support and 12 percent superannuation. For many, it feels like an obvious economic upgrade. Journalist Ged Cann reported a 31 percent pay rise after moving to Melbourne along with significantly better long-term benefits.

But alongside this trend, young New Zealanders are increasingly asking why staying feels so difficult. Gen Z are one of the most financially disciplined generations, yet 93 percent say they are worried about the cost of living and more than half would need support if they lost their job. As youth advocate Sophie Handford argues, the issue is not motivation but uncertainty. Years of underinvestment, shifting policies and a lack of long-term planning have made it hard to believe a secure future is being built here.

That is why new initiatives like the Tomorrow Together campaign are calling for long-term decision making focused on future generations. The idea is simple: if New Zealand wants to keep its talent, it must offer stability, opportunity and a clear sense of direction. Countries like Wales and Finland already use Future Generations Acts to ensure major decisions benefit those yet to come. Adopting similar thinking could strengthen our economic foundations and give young people confidence that their future in New Zealand is worth committing to.