Future Job Series 3: The Future of Work in New Zealand

New Zealand is standing at an inflection point. After years marked by economic uncertainty, global trade realignments, and domestic cost pressures, the path forward hinges on one question: how do we translate innovation into jobs? 
 
For decades, the country has relied on its natural advantage of exporting what we grow or make. That model has served us well, but the world is shifting. Countries that once shared our export DNA, such as Ireland, Singapore, and Denmark, are now moving up the value chain. They are building innovation ecosystems that not only fuel economic growth but also create new employment pathways in science, technology, advanced manufacturing, and clean energy. 
 
New Zealand’s *Going for Growth* plan recognises these shifts and sets ambitious targets: doubling exports by 2034, reforming R&D systems, and revitalising trade partnerships. Yet while these policies paint a picture of opportunity, the question remains: who will fill the jobs that this growth demands? 

Government data paints a mixed picture. The *Employment Action Plan (2024)* acknowledges the country’s persistent productivity gap and highlights skill mismatches. Nearly a quarter of working-age New Zealanders have no qualification beyond school. Youth inactivity is also rising, and long-term welfare dependency among under-25s has deep social and economic costs. 
 
These are not just statistics; they represent untapped potential. Immigration continues to fill critical labour gaps in healthcare, logistics, and construction, but as the *Developing Talent* report makes clear, migration alone cannot future-proof our workforce. The long-term solution lies in raising educational achievement, reforming vocational pathways, and building technological capability. 
 
That means tighter alignment between government, business, and education to ensure that investment in innovation is matched by investment in people. 

Despite global turbulence, New Zealand’s export sector has shown remarkable resilience. According to *ASB’s Economic Forecast Update (September 2025)*, strong dairy, beef, kiwifruit, and wine exports have kept the economy on a “bumpy but stable” recovery path. Dairy remains the “breadwinner of growth,” with milk-price forecasts at $9.75 per kgMS. Wine exports have surpassed $2.1 billion, reaching more than 100 countries. 
 
Tourism has rebounded to 87 percent of pre-COVID peaks, driven by visitors from the United States and China. Yet, as ASB warns, tariff risks and slower Chinese demand could affect export momentum. Still, this resilience shows the innovative strength of New Zealand’s producers, many of whom have built global brands through sustainability, quality, and adaptability. These same principles must now be applied to emerging industries. 

According to *Stats NZ’s 2024 Research and Development Survey*, total R&D expenditure reached $6.4 billion, a 21 percent increase since 2022. The number of full-time R&D staff rose 9 percent to 42,000, and average spending per entity climbed 24 percent to $2.8 million. 
 
Businesses accounted for 63 percent of total spend, with the rest from universities and government institutions. The fastest-growing areas were health research, energy innovation, and advanced manufacturing. 
 
However, New Zealand still invests far less in R&D than its OECD peers. Our R&D-to-GDP ratio of 1.54 percent sits well below the OECD average of 2.7 percent. In 2025, as *Newsroom* reported, the Government quietly dropped the decade-old target of reaching 2 percent by 2030. 
 
Experts like Professor Nicola Gaston from the University of Auckland warn that declining public investment could undermine private innovation. When universities struggle, businesses follow. The link between research and enterprise is critical because without it, innovation becomes isolated from the workforce that needs it most. 

As Andrew Bowater, Senior Vice President at HEALWELL AI, recently told Parliament’s Foreign Affairs, Defence and Trade Select Committee, New Zealand’s biggest export barrier “isn’t offshore, it’s at home.” He argues that too many start-ups must prove themselves overseas before being taken seriously here. 
 
His point cuts to the heart of our challenge. If we want to grow exports, we must start by backing local innovators. That means procurement policies that favour Kiwi firms, domestic pilot projects that give them proof of concept, and financing mechanisms that turn prototypes into production. 
 
This call echoes through every sector. New Zealand already produces world-class digital, health, and agritech solutions, yet entrepreneurs still struggle for local recognition and investment. Bowater’s message is simple: to build a stronger “NZ Inc.” story, we must support homegrown innovation before expecting the world to do it for us. 

Ireland provides a valuable lesson in connecting innovation to job creation. Through *Enterprise Ireland*, the government directly funds companies to expand their workforce, offering grants of up to €15,000 per employee when at least three new jobs are created. The funding is targeted at firms with export potential and regional impact. 
 
This approach treats job creation as an outcome of innovation, not a separate goal. It builds a feedback loop between research, enterprise, and employment. The results speak for themselves: robust tech exports, strong growth in life sciences, and a thriving clean-energy sector. 
 
For New Zealand, a similar framework could be transformative. Rather than viewing R&D as a cost, we could treat it as a job-creation engine. By supporting small and mid-sized firms to commercialise ideas and hire early-career talent, we can build new industries from within. 

Future jobs will emerge from the intersection of technology, sustainability, and human adaptability. Ireland’s employment grants show how targeted incentives can accelerate job creation. Denmark’s vocational and apprenticeship system ensures that workers, especially youth, can transition into new roles as industries evolve. 
 
New Zealand’s own apprenticeship landscape, while expanding in some areas, still reveals structural gaps. In 2024 there were approximately 31,520 apprentices in building, 9,060 in electrical engineering, 5,685 in automotive, and 3,830 in mechanical and industrial engineering. Aerospace technology apprenticeships have grown to 580, a positive sign, but new sectors such as green tech or gene technology remain largely absent. 
 
These numbers underscore the need for forward planning. If the *Going for Growth* vision is to be realised, the apprenticeship and training ecosystem must align with emerging industries, not just existing ones. 

Recruiters play a crucial role in this transition. Beyond filling vacancies, they identify transferable skills, assess adaptability, and connect people to emerging career pathways. 
 
When industries evolve, workers often underestimate how their skills can translate. A forklift operator can retrain in automated logistics. A mechanical fitter might move into wind-turbine maintenance. A logistics coordinator may shift into data-driven inventory roles. 
 
Recruiters bridge that gap between potential and opportunity. By working closely with employers and training providers, they help shape the next generation of workers for digital and green economies. 

New Zealand’s long-term prosperity depends on how effectively we turn innovation into employment. The numbers show progress but at a pace too slow to close the productivity gap with other developed nations. 
 
To build a future-ready workforce, we must strengthen three links in the chain: research, enterprise, and people. Universities and research institutes need stable funding to fuel discovery. Businesses need incentives and confidence to commercialise innovation. Workers need accessible, supported pathways to upskill and transition into new sectors. 
 
R&D spending has reached $6.4 billion, exports remain robust, and sectors like green energy, aerospace, and biotechnology show promise. However, without strategic alignment between innovation and employment, much of this potential could dissipate. 
 
New Zealand has the raw ingredients: creativity, sustainability, and global trust. What it needs now is a clear mechanism for turning innovation into jobs. That means linking public research to private investment, supporting businesses to grow, and empowering people to adapt their skills. 
 
The future of work in New Zealand will depend on how well we connect these pieces: innovation, investment, training, and trust. Other nations have shown that it can be done. Ireland built a model where every euro of R&D spending has a human outcome. Denmark created a pathway for every learner. Now it is New Zealand’s turn to do the same, to move the national conversation from job losses to job creation and from uncertainty to shared opportunity.