Future Jobs Series Second Edition: Learning from Denmark – What New Zealand Can Take Away

Globalisation and technology have transformed labour markets. Production chains are now fragmented: design in Copenhagen, manufacturing in Shenzhen, IT support in Bangalore, services in Dublin. This hollowed out many unskilled jobs in advanced economies, while rewarding countries that pivoted to high-value niches. 
 
Denmark has seen unskilled jobs in the private sector fall by 15 percent since 1980. Around a quarter of its population still has no skills beyond basic schooling. Yet instead of accepting decline, policymakers built an inclusive vocational training system to ensure young people and mid-career workers could gain skills tied directly to industries of the future. 
 
New Zealand faces similar pressures. Stats NZ reported 50,000 fewer jobs in June 2025 compared to December 2023. Losses were concentrated in construction, manufacturing, and retail, the very sectors that once absorbed large numbers of workers without tertiary education. Without a plan to transition workers into new industries, many risk long-term unemployment or dependence on benefits. 

Denmark’s vocational education and training system is central to its response. It is designed to be flexible and inclusive. Learners can draw up individual education plans and have prior learning recognised. The system also makes space for students who do not thrive in academic settings, aiming to reduce dropout and prevent social exclusion. 
 
A key feature is partial qualifications. Around 70 out of 110 programmes offer them. These align with real job profiles and allow trainees to gain part of a qualification, with the option of completing the rest later. It creates a second-chance pathway for people who might otherwise be locked out of vocational education altogether. 
 
Apprenticeships are also central. Trainees combine classroom learning with in-company training, ensuring education remains practical and relevant. There are even pre-training options that allow young people and employers to try out relationships before committing. 
 
The system is far from perfect. Dropout rates remain high, particularly among ethnic minorities and young people with weak basic skills. Yet the philosophy is clear. Vocational education is not treated as second-class but as a foundation for national economic strategy. 

How does New Zealand compare? Apprenticeships here remain concentrated in traditional trades. The data tells an important story. Below is a snapshot of selected fields in 2018 and 2024, followed by a chart that visualises the shifts. 

Apprenticeships in 2018 (selected fields) 

Occupation	Number of apprentices
Carpenters	12,430
Automotive (mechanics, technicians)	3,835
Electrical and electronic trades	5,755
Plumbers, gasfitters, drainlayers	3,470
Mechanical engineers	2,335
Agriculture/horticulture (combined)	≈4,685
Aerospace	460
Biotechnology/sustainability	0

 

Apprenticeships in 2024 (selected fields) 

Field of study	Number of apprentices
Building	31,520
Automotive engineering and technology	5,685
Electrical and electronic engineering and technology	9,060
Mechanical and industrial engineering and technology	3,830
Aerospace engineering and technology	580
Agriculture	1,380
Horticulture and viticulture	2,070
Biotechnology/sustainability	0

 The numbers show strong growth in building and electrical trades, but a sharp decline in agriculture apprenticeships and almost no presence in biotechnology, AI, or sustainability. One positive sign is aerospace engineering, which now has 580 apprentices compared to 460 in 2018. This reflects the Government’s ambitions for the space and aviation sector. The overall picture, however, is that New Zealand’s apprenticeship system is still training workers for yesterday’s economy. 

It would not be accurate to say apprenticeships are disappearing. They are being reshaped. From 1 January 2025, the Government’s Apprenticeship Boost scheme will only be available for employers of first-year apprentices in targeted occupations that are seen as crucial to New Zealand’s growth and sustainability. Eligibility rests on the apprentice training toward a Level 4 certificate in subject areas such as building, agriculture, horticulture and viticulture, forestry studies, manufacturing, engineering and technology, process and resources engineering, automotive engineering and technology, electrical and electronic engineering and technology, aerospace and maritime engineering and technology, food and hospitality, and human welfare studies and services. Employers already receiving payments continue until 31 December 2024, and from 1 January 2025 ongoing eligibility is automatically checked with the Tertiary Education Commission. 

This narrowing of funding is a deliberate policy choice that concentrates resources where they can have the most impact. It reflects an intent to focus on sectors that are considered foundational. The risk is that emerging fields such as biotechnology or sustainability-focused services are not explicitly named, which could leave gaps. Denmark’s vocational system, by contrast, keeps doors open through partial qualifications that recognise progress and support learners to return and complete later. 

Denmark has named its growth sectors and mapped the jobs within them. Robotics and automation employ more than 8,500 people across over 300 companies. The country ranks among Europe’s leaders in digital competitiveness and has strengths in software, cybersecurity, AI, and quantum technology. Cleantech has been the fastest growing sector of Danish exports since 2010, supported by a national target to reach 100 percent renewable energy by 2050 and an already substantial share of power from renewables today. Healthcare and life sciences are expanding as the population ages, opening roles in biotech, medical technology, and data-driven care. 

The New Zealand Government’s Going for Growth programme sets out ambitions to double exports by 2034, attract high-quality foreign investment, reform science and innovation funding, develop strategies for AI, gene technology, and space, and lift infrastructure investment through fast-track approvals. These are important signals. The missing link is clarity about the specific jobs that will result, and the training pathways that will support them. Without that connection, strategy risks remaining abstract. Denmark’s approach is different. Industrial policy and training are deliberately joined. Investment in robotics is matched with technician training. Commitments to green energy are backed by expanded apprenticeships in electrical, mechanical, and renewable systems. 

New Zealand must decide whether to continue relying on immigration to fill high-tech shortages, or to prepare its own people for future industries. We already know the broad sectors where opportunities lie, including green technology, AI, biotechnology, and aerospace. The task now is to build pathways into them, design training systems that are inclusive, create entry points through partial qualifications, and align apprenticeships with emerging industries. We also need to champion business innovation and make sure government strategies translate into real jobs. 

We cannot only talk about job losses. We must also talk about job creation. Denmark shows how a small advanced economy can prepare its people through deliberate strategy and inclusive training systems. New Zealand is starting to move, but our apprenticeship and education policies are still behind the pace of change. Apprenticeships are not vanishing, they are being redefined. The question is whether they are being defined in the right places. We need to think seriously about where job opportunities will come from and prepare people now. Immigration will always be part of the solution, but we cannot depend on it alone. This series will continue to examine other small economies, including Singapore, Ireland, and Canada, to learn how they are preparing for the future of work.